Both of those numbers are above recent forecasts from the Senior Citizen's League and independent analyst Mary Johnson. Both expect a 2.5% COLA for 2026, based on their proprietary models. On the other hand, the Social Security trustees expect next year's COLA to come in between 2.4% and 3%, with 2.7% as their intermediate assumption.

Trump's new tax law cuts seniors’ taxes—but may speed up Social Security’s collapse, risking benefit cuts of up to 23% by 2033 if no fix is made.