The Wolfpack made FSU pay after the two botched punts. On a fourth-and-6 from the FSU 12, C.J. Bailey hit Justin Joly on a 12-yard touchdown pass to help lift NC State to a 21-11 lead with about 2 minutes to play.

The model has Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos throwing for more than 250 yards and two touchdowns, while NC State quarterback C.J. Bailey will be held to under 220 yards and two touchdowns. The model projects that these teams combine for 55 points as the Under hits more than 60% of the time.