After you read this, you’ll have a 32% chance at better understanding how bad you are at probability. If the risk of an event goes up or down, we assume that it will keep changing in that direction.

Insurance can effectively mitigate significant operational risks. However, not all losses are insurable, and payments of covered losses are not generally reimbursed in full for reasons including the ...

Discover how emotional biases impact stock market crash estimates. See why expert analysis suggests lower risk and learn how to refine your own forecasts.

Unlikeliness characterizes coincidences. A common kind of coincidence, for example, is one in which you think of a friend and that friend calls you. Your first thought might be, “What are the chances?