Per Pro Football Reference, home playoff underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 vs. the spread over the last 50 years. The Patriots aren’t playing against history, obviously, but I do think the Broncos’ defense can keep it close. And Stidham will be rusty, obviously, but he can’t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week.

NFL player prop bets and picks for Patriots vs. Broncos and Rams vs. Seahawks from the SportsLine Machine Learning Model AI