Policy risks are set to fade just as markets underestimate hawkish Fed repricing and crowd into short-USD positions, setting the stage for a tactical dollar rebound into the election cycle. Go long ...

The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many ...

Productivity Does Not Equal Profits Chart 1 Productivity Growth Does Not Always Translate Into Profit Growth ...

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro ...

Last Friday, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled against the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling renders President ...

In Section I, Doug recommends cutting US equity exposure in favor of Europe as reduced recession odds make it unlikely that the US will draw safe-haven capital flows. In Section II, Jesse ranks middle ...

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

1. OverviewHistorically, a decline in MacroQuant’s US equity z-score to below -1 has provided a strong signal that stocks were likely to drop (Chart 1). The last two times the z-score fell below this ...

Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, ...

Our FX strategists expect the US dollar to remain the backbone of the global financial system, even as its reserve-currency premium gradually erodes. The dollar’s entrenched role in global markets ...

South Africa’s commodity boost is fading, but its cyclical headwinds remain. As growth weakens and capital inflows dry up, the rand looks increasingly vulnerable to a reversal.

A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.