Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S ...

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet—a record of its assets and liabilities—provides important information about the scale and scope of its open market operations, a key monetary policy tool. Expanding ...

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that ...

Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening ...

This paper proposes a validation framework for LLM-generated measurements when reliable benchmarks are unavailable. Validity is established by testing whether an LLM can reconstruct passages from ...

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...

A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in ...

The Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks annually prepare and release audited financial statements reflecting balances (as of December 31) and income and expenses for the year then ended.

Mary C. Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco joined José Luis Escrivá, Governor of the Banco de España for a moderated conversation at the Banco de España’s conference, ...

Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, associate professor of finance at the Rady School of Management, UCSD delivered a live presentation on the impact of AI on labor and wages on July 1, 2026. Professor Schmidt ...