Policy risks are set to fade just as markets underestimate hawkish Fed repricing and crowd into short-USD positions, setting the stage for a tactical dollar rebound into the election cycle. Go long ...

The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many ...

Productivity Does Not Equal Profits Chart 1 Productivity Growth Does Not Always Translate Into Profit Growth ...

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro ...

In Section I, Doug recommends cutting US equity exposure in favor of Europe as reduced recession odds make it unlikely that the US will draw safe-haven capital flows. In Section II, Jesse ranks middle ...

Last Friday, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled against the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling renders President ...

Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, ...

Several indicators of US economic activity improved significantly during the past month. January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI moved above 50 for the first time since February 2025. Perhaps more notably, we ...

South Africa’s commodity boost is fading, but its cyclical headwinds remain. As growth weakens and capital inflows dry up, the rand looks increasingly vulnerable to a reversal.

Sell America? No. The GeoMacro trade is Buy RoW! Left-tail risks are easing because the US isn’t collapsing. That argues for less enthusiasm for safe havens, not selling US assets. The S&P 500 can ...

It appears that households have been able to spend more than they’ve earned since May by dipping into their swollen brokerage accounts. Bulked-up equity holdings could herald a future where ...

The actions of the Trump administration have dominated the headlines over the past month. They are all noise. Focus on the reactions from the rest of the world. Policy makers outside of the US are now ...