1. OverviewHistorically, a decline in MacroQuant’s US equity z-score to below -1 has provided a strong signal that stocks were likely to drop (Chart 1). The last two times the z-score fell below this ...

Policy risks are set to fade just as markets underestimate hawkish Fed repricing and crowd into short-USD positions, setting the stage for a tactical dollar rebound into the election cycle. Go long ...

The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many ...

Productivity Does Not Equal Profits Chart 1 Productivity Growth Does Not Always Translate Into Profit Growth ...

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro ...

In Section I, Doug recommends cutting US equity exposure in favor of Europe as reduced recession odds make it unlikely that the US will draw safe-haven capital flows. In Section II, Jesse ranks middle ...

Last Friday, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled against the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling renders President ...

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

Arthur is the Chief EM/China Strategist and also oversees the Commodity Strategy service. He is a member of BCA’s Leadership Team. He joined BCA in 1999 and has served in the Chief Strategist role ...

Artem Sakhbiev is a Strategist for BCA’s Foreign Exchange service, where he develops currency models and translates the firm’s macroeconomic and geopolitical views into actionable, market-relevant ...

January Brings Less Labor Market SlackIt feels a bit weird to write that a report showing the US economy employs about one million fewer people than previously thought is one of the best jobs reports ...

The yen carry trade will unwind this year. However, it will be triggered by a drop in “carry asset” prices and a spike in the JPY/USD, rather than by Japan’s improving interest rate differentials. Go ...