Trump’s speech does not resolve the fundamental dilemma surrounding the continuation of the conflict. Given the low probability of reaching an agreement with Iran under the current conditions, since the regime is neither likely to capitulate nor agree to far-reaching concessions then the administration faces a stark choice: escalate the campaign, whether through ground operations or strikes on critical energy infrastructure, or disengage without an agreement, leaving Iran in control of key marit
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Trump’s speech does not resolve the fundamental dilemma surroun…
722.4K views1 month ago
x.comDanny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
In principle, I understand the rationale behind maintaining a strong deterrent posture toward Iran. However, it is important to recognize that this approach is unlikely to fundamentally change Iran’s behavior.The Iranian regime does not seek an endless war. But when faced with a choice between compromising its ideological principles and enduring continued pressure, its priorities are clear. Given its demonstrated willingness, and capability, to impose significant costs on its neighbors and on th
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In principle, I understand the rationale behind maintaining a str…
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x.comDanny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
I understand the desire to frame recent developments as a shift within the Iranian regime, or to suggest that the U.S. negotiated with Iran’s “top decision-maker.” But that’s simply not the reality.Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is a senior figure, but he is not the one who truly holds power in Iran. Real authority lies with Mojtaba Khamenei, alongside the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a small circle of senior security figures closely tied to the Supreme Leader’s offic
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I understand the desire to frame recent developments as a shift wit…
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x.comDanny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Thank you @jimsciutto @CNN for this interview. My Analysis:A. What we’re seeing in Iran is not regime change a very negative change within the regime. Power is consolidating in the hands of the IRGC, with a more radical leadership that functions largely as a front.B. There is a real risk that post-Khamenei leadership will accelerate the push toward nuclear weapons, viewing it as the ultimate deterrent against the U.S. and Israel — much like the North Korean model.C. Even a dramatic move like sei
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Thank you @jimsciutto @CNN for this interview. My Analysis:A. Wha…
76.5K views1 month ago
x.comDanny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
What we are seeing in Iran is not a regime change — but a transformation within the regime itself, one that has made it more extreme.For years, Ali Khamenei maintained a delicate internal balance between hardliners and more pragmatic elements. That balance has now been disrupted.The outcome is not a “Venezuela scenario,” but something closer to North Korea: a system increasingly dominated by the IRGC, alongside a younger, less experienced leadership that is more ideological and more driven by gr
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x.comDanny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
As the campaign continues, it will become increasingly difficult for Israel and USA to remain aligned on its objectives. The reason is simple: unlike Israel, which views neutralizing Iran’s ability to threaten it as the central goal, even at the risk of internal chaos in Iran—the U.S. administration and, even more so, the Gulf states attach significant importance to the “day after” in Iran.For these actors, the key question is not only weakening the Iranian regime, but also ensuring that whoever
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As the campaign continues, it will become increasingly difficult for I…
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x.comDanny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Thank you @FareedZakaria for the interview concerning the developments unfolding tonight in the Middle East and the possible options for ending it.
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